AFL Tips – Carlton v Richmond – Round 1 2022

Carlton have lost 11-straight to Richmond but should be very competitive on Thursday in their first outing under Michael Voss. Wet weather is forecast so be wary with any total or goal kicker bets.

Best Bet

Carlton +15.5 ($1.90)

The Blues have covered the line in four of the last five season openers against Richmond and should do so once again.

Carlton looked far stronger defensively in the pre-season after conceding the second most points of any side in 2021. Despite reigning best and fairest Sam Walsh being out, Adam Cerra and George Hewett provide added midfield depth, while Patty Cripps looks ready to return to his best after a disappointing 2021.

The Tigers’ strong MCG form abandoned them in 2021, covering in just three of 10 games, and Carlton have been surprisingly strong against the number at the home of football, covering the line in two thirds of their games in the last three years.

15 points looks a nice head start for a Carlton team on the rise.

Same Game Multi

Carlton +15.5 / P. Cripps 25+ disposals / N. Balta Anytime Goal ($3.30)

Cripps looked fantastic in pre-season and with Walsh missing he’ll need to shoulder more of the midfield load for Carlton. He’s also recorded 25+ touches in seven straight games against the Tigers.

Noah Balta has been redeployed as a forward in pre-season and kicked 3.1 in Richmond’s last practice match. Without Liam Jones, Carlton’s key defenders will struggle to contain Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt and Balta.

Value Bet

D.Martin 30+ Disposals ($3.75)

Dusty has racked up 30+ in his last five against Carlton excluding the Covid-shortened match in 2020 where he had 24. He is expected to spend more time in the guts with Balta providing an extra marking option forward for Richmond.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.