AFL Tips - Carlton v Port Adelaide

Second-placed Carlton face a tricky test on Friday night at Marvel Stadium when they host a Port Adelaide side who are locked in a fierce battle for a top eight spot.

Best Bet

Over 181.5 Points

Total Points

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$1.87

We should see plenty of points to kick off Round 20 as both of these teams are average defensively.

Despite sitting second on the ladder, the Blues are 10th for points conceded in 2024. For such a vaunted midfield, they are remarkably bad at conceding points from stoppage, sitting dead last in this stat at 41.9 points per game.

That’s music to the ears of Port, who are at their best when Butters, Rozee and Horne-Francis are allowed clean exits from the midfield. They are ranked sixth for scores from stoppage – their highest ranking score source.

Ken Hinkley’s men have struggled against Curnow and McKay, with each booting 3+ goals in three of their last four games against Port. They’ve allowed some big scores lately too, including 107 against the Blues just eight weeks ago.

Carlton’s last nine matches have all gone over the mark, including three games at Marvel which averaged 190 points. The last five between these teams have also gone over at an average of 185 points.

Marvel games not featuring St Kilda go over at a 63% clip this year at an average of 194 points (St Kilda games average 134 points there – thanks Ross).

All signs point to a shootout on Friday night.

Insights

🆚 Port Adelaide vs Carlton: Port Adelaide has struggled against Carlton recently, failing to secure a win in their last 4 encounters. 🤔

🏟️ Carlton’s Home Streak: Carlton has been strong at home, winning their last 4 games in a row. 🏅

🔄 Carlton Off a Win: Carlton has continued their winning ways after a win, securing 4 victories in the last 6 games and achieving 2 wins by 40+ points in the last 3 games. 🌟

Same Game Multi

Over 181.5 Points, M.Georgiades, C.Curnow & H.McKay 2+ Goals, M.Bergman 15+ disposals

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TBC

As mentioned, Port have struggled to contain Carlton’s twin threats lately. Even with the recruitment of Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher, both Curnow and McKay kicked three each in Round 12 against the Power.

Suspect Weitering goes to Dixon, which would leave Georgiades to cash in on an undersized defence. He’s kicked 3+ in five of his last six and six in two games against Carlton.

Miles Bergman has had 15+ in six straight.

Value Bet

Over 215.5

Alternate Total Points

Bet Now

$5.40

Find the biggest number you can find at back it. We saw Adelaide and Essendon pile on 228 points last Friday night at Marvel and these two sides are just as capable of piling on goals in a hurry.

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