Coming off consecutive losses, Carlton are in need of a win when they face North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium to close out Round 19.
Best Bet
This is a monster total but it still won’t be big enough.
Carlton’s last eight games have all gone over the mark with an average total of 206 points in their last four games.
For a team currently under $5.00 to win the flag, it’s surprising how average the Blues are defensively, sitting ninth for points conceded at 81 points per game.
Their major issue is around the pill, where they are ranked dead last for scores from stoppage conceded in 2024 at 41.8 points per game.
Carlton’s defence has been disrupted too with Boyd and Marchbank out through injury and Kemp dropped.
North are capable of taking advantage of their opponents’ leaky backline, particularly at Marvel, where they average 77 points from their last four.
The last six between these teams have gone over, with an average total of 191 points (excluding a 2020 shortened game).
Expect a shootout to close out Round 19.
Insights
⚔️ Carlton vs North Melbourne: This matchup tends to be high-scoring, with the over hitting in 7 out of the last 8 games.
📈 Carlton Recent Performance: Carlton has covered the spread in 7 out of their last 9 games and won 5 out of their last 8 games.
🔝 North Melbourne Against Top Teams: Against top-8 teams, North Melbourne games have gone over the total in 7 out of their last 8 games.
Same Game Multi
North aren’t playing a tagger so expect Cripps and Walsh to feast.
Colby McKercher is averaging over 30 touches in his last five and has cleared the 25 mark in each. He’ll have plenty of kick ins to take in a high-scoring game.
Harry McKay has nine goals in his last two games against North and will likely get Griffin Logue in his first game back from an ACL. Nick Larkey has kicked 15 in his last four against Carlton.
Value Bet
Hansen Jr is a huge price for a small forward to bag a couple in what should be a high-scoring game. He’s kicked nine goals in his last four in the magoos to earn his first game of the season.
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