The under is once again a compelling bet when the league’s best defence takes the field on Thursday night at the MCG.
Best Bet
The Dees defence is on fire at the moment and should be able to keep yet another game under the total point line.
The high flying Cats, previously averaging about 100 points a game, were just the latest side to come under the Dees stranglehold, scoring just nine goals and 66 points in total.
In their three prior games the Dees allowed 42, 82 (despite being smashed in the middle against Brisbane) and 63 points.
The Blues are highly reliant on Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to kick their goals and unlike most teams, the Dees have good matchups for them. Steven May gave Curnow a bath in last year’s Semi Final, while Tom McDonald has been rejuvenated as a key back, doing a great job on Jeremy Cameron last week.
Offensively, the Dees are hardly setting the world on fire. Daniel Turner and Harry Petty compete hard, but they don’t scream scoring power.
These sides also have a remarkable history of low scoring games. The last six between them have gone under. Last year’s games – in perfect weather – saw totals of 143 and 116.
Chips in the under.
Same Game Multi
Once again avoiding the goal scorers due to our view on how the game will play out.
Dees skipper Max Gawn has at least 15 in his last six games. Clayton Oliver had 27 in both games against the Blues last year and finally looks injury free.
For the Blues, Sam Walsh has had 30 or more in all four games this season and had 34 against the Dees in last year’s Semi. Nic Newman is accumulating a lot of uncontested disposals in the back half.
Value Bet
Fritsch, normally a beautiful kick, had 2.3 in both games against Carlton last year. With better finishing he is well capable of topping the goalscoring in this.
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