AFL Tips - Carlton v Hawthorn

Carlton will be looking to bounce back from a disastrous Round 1 loss when they face the 2-0 Hawks on Thursday night.

Best Bet

Hawthorn -16.5

Line

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$1.90

This is a horrible match-up for a Carlton team that simply can’t defend.

The Blues were dreadful after jumping out to a 41-point lead over the Tigers last week, conceding 12 of the final 14 goals. It marked a continuation of Michael Voss’ team’s defensive woes, after they ranked 14th for points conceded in 2024. They especially struggled against small forwards, with Sam Lalor, Jack Ross, and Seth Campbell doing the damage for the Tiges, each kicking two goals.

Struggling defensively against small forwards is the last thing you want before facing Hawthorn, who arguably have the best small forward group in the competition.

The MCG has also become a fortress for the Hawks, covering the line in their last seven games there with an average winning margin of 48 points, including a 74-point demolition of Carlton in Round 22 last year.

Charlie Curnow returns for the Blues, but he has a poor record against the Hawks, managing just 10 goals in six games. He’ll also be first up following an injury-affected pre-season.

Carlton will come out angry after last week, but it’s unlikely to last. This could get ugly.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn -16.5, N.Watson, D.Moore & B.Hardwick 2+ Goals

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TBC

A big Hawthorn win will mean plenty of goal-kickers, and with Carlton lacking pace in their backline, targeting the small forwards makes sense. Watson, Moore and Hardwick each kicked 2+ last week against Essendon.

Value Bet

Hawthorn 40+

Margin

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$3.70

Hawthorn 61+

Margin

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$8.75

Sensational value for a big Hawthorn win. This is about as bad a match-up as Carlton could cop after last week’s belting and its hard to see how they contain the Hawks.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.