The Blues and Giants meet on Saturday afternoon at Marvel Stadium in what should be one of the most intriguing matches of the season to date.
Best Bet
This is a ripping match-up but one that has been dramatically affected by injury, particularly in defence for both teams.
Much has been made of Sam Taylor’s absence coming up against the league’s best tall forward combo in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, but the Blues will also be missing their best small lockdown and rebounding defender in Adam Saad, as well as the in-form Mitch McGovern. Their absence is a huge red flag coming up against the league’s highest-scoring team, especially after conceding 100 points last week to the previously impotent Crows.
As we have discussed in previous games, the Blues are overly-reliant on Curnow and McKay to kick their goals, with the duo contributing 43% of their team’s goals in 2024 – the highest proportion of any duo in the league.
Can the Giants stop them? Adam Kingsley possesses versatile key defensive depth in Jack Buckley, Connor Idun, Harry Himmelberg and Leek Aleer so he will have options if one gets off the chain. Sam Taylor also didn’t play in their Round 24 clash last year and GWS ran out big winners. Charlie Curnow kicked three and Harry McKay didn’t hit the scoreboard.
The away team has covered the line in Carlton’s last nine games and the Giants have covered the line in their last six on the road.
With gun mid Adam Cerra missing as well for the Blues, back the visitors to get the job done.
Same Game Multi
Toby Greene has enjoyed this match-up, kicking 3+ in his last two against Carlton at Marvel. Outside of Saad, Carlton don’t have great small lockdown defenders so he could be in for a big afternoon.
Callum Brown is the Giants’ second-leading goal-kicker in 2024 but fifth in the market for goals. He’s good value for a couple.
Much more responsibility will fall on Nic Newman off half-back in Saad and McGovern’s absence. He’s had 20+ in six straight at Marvel and will likely take most of the kick-ins.
Value Bet
The loss of Adam Saad is enormous for Carlton as he is their primary playmaker off a half-back line that is already missing Sam Docherty. Mitch McGovern isn’t the same calibre of player but he is an elite user out of defence and his team’s primary kick-out taker.
Without the smooth-moving Cerra too, this Carlton team looks a touch slow coming up against the league’s most electric ball movement team on a fast deck at Marvel.
If the Giants’ defence can keep McKay and Curnow in check, then this could be a comfortable win for the away team.
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