Carlton are on the march to finals for the first time since 2013 and should breeze past the inconsistent Giants on Sunday at Marvel Stadium.
The Giants are completely untrustworthy and cannot be bet, especially against elite competition.
GWS are a paltry 2-6 against the spread when facing top eight teams in 2022, losing by an average of 35.8 points.
The Giants lost to the Blues back in Round 9 by 30 points, even with the added motivation provided by Leon Cameron’s final game in charge. Carlton were also missing one of their spearheads in Harry McKay on that occassion.
GWS lost the contested possession count by 34 in that game, their worst return of the year. This came despite Braydon Preuss owning Tom DeKoning in the ruck, 44 hitouts to 11. This week they’ll be without two of their top four contested players in Tom Green and Josh Kelly.
Carlton’s record at Marvel has been good of late, they’ve covered in five of their last six games there and in three of their last four when favoured by four goals or more.
They are an extremely confident bet.
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This looks like an almighty ass-kicking in the midfield. Sam Walsh has cleared 30 touches in seven of his last nine games while Matthew Kennedy has had 20+ in 11 straight games. George Hewitt is under an injury cloud so Paddy Dow may provide some extra value if he plays.
Patrick Cripps has kicked a goal in 12 of 16 games this year.
The Giants have been putrid in the last two weeks, suggesting the sugar hit from a change in coach is well and truly wearing off. The Blues look one of the bets of the round and a big margin is certainly worth a play.