Geelong downed the Blues when these sides met in Round 8 but the home side can turn the tables on Friday night at the MCG.
Best Bet
What a difference two months makes.
Geelong’s victory over Carlton was the apex mountain of their 2024 campaign, as the win left them a clear game on top of the ladder.
Alas, it’s been all downhill for the Cats since then as they have proceeded to lose five of their next six with the only win coming over Richmond at Kardinia Park.
However, when you look a little closer at the Round 8 game, it wasn’t hard to see worrying signs for the Cats. They lost the inside 50 count 66-45, with only remarkable efficiency forward and in defence getting them over the line.
It’s a hard way to continue to win and that’s manifested itself over the last couple of months.
Carlton on the other hand went into the bye in terrific form with three straight wins. They have got some key personnel back and their best players are playing well.
The Blues are a very confident bet.
Insights
📉 Geelong Off a Loss: The Cats have struggled off a loss, winning only 3 of their last 9 games in this scenario and covering the spread just 3 times in their last 15 games.
📊 Carlton Recent Performance: The Blues have been in excellent form recently, winning 3 of their last 4 games and covering the spread in their last 6 games.
📉 Geelong Recent Performance: The Cats Cats have had a tough stretch, winning only 1 of their last 6 games and covering the spread just once in their last 8 games.
Same Game Multi
Sam Walsh had 31 when these sides last met and big ball winning mids typically do well against the Cats.
Elijah Hollands is seeing more midfield time and has cleared 15 in four straight.
Zac Williams move into the forward line has been very successful with multiple snags in his last three games. He’s playing a very deep role which generates a lot of chances.
Value Bet
There are lots of big name forwards on both sides so Williams might slip under the radar here, both in terms of the market and a favourable matchup.
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