The Blues and the Bombers meet on Sunday night at the MCG is arguably the biggest meeting of the old rivals since the infamous 1999 Preliminary Final.
Best Bet
Carlton are the bet against an Essendon team that simply isn’t as good as their ladder position suggests.
The Bombers’ eight wins have come against teams ranked 17th, 18th, 7th, 16th, 14th, 11th, 15th and 12th. They’ve lost to teams ranked 1st, 3rd, 8th and drawn with Collingwood. Based on ladder position, they’ve had the fifth easiest draw to date.
Champion Data’s expected scoring suggests they’ve been fortunate on the accuracy front in some of those wins too, with only a 4-8 winning record based on that statistic.
After a strong start to season in the guts, their contested game has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks, ranked dead last for clearance differential over the last five weeks. That didn’t hurt against teams like Richmond and North, but it won’t cut it against the contested beasts of Carlton.
The Blues have been sensational against the league’s elite of late, winning 12 of their last 15 against teams ranked above them on the ladder. Essendon have won just four of their last 13 against top six teams.
Having said all that, the Blues do have a nasty habit of getting themselves into close contests lately, even against teams they should be beating comfortably.
Expect a Carlton win, but with the Bombers a respectable eighth for points conceded in 2024, it’s unlikely to be a blowout.
Same Game Multi
The under looks a sensational play too with each of Carlton’s last six night games at the MCG going under, as well as eight of Essendon’s last ten. Night games at the MCG in the dead of winter (between rounds 12 and 18) have gone under at a 64% clip since 2010.
Sam Walsh has had over 30 touches in nine of his last ten games while Nic Martin has had 25+ in 12 of his last 13.
Zac Williams has been redeployed as a forward in recent weeks and has kicked seven goals in his last two games.
Value Bet
As mentioned, ‘Cardiac Carlton’ continue to scrape home in many of their wins. Five of their last seven wins at the MCG have come by a margin of 1-9 points.
As mentioned, Williams looks at home up forward, filling a much-needed small forward gap for Carlton. He’s booted four and three goals in his last two games.
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