The AFL’s most storied rivalry returns to the MCG on Thursday night with Carlton and Collingwood squaring off in a must-win game for both sides.
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Best Bet
The under in Collingwood games is becoming one of the strongest trends of the 2026 season.
Four of the Pies’ five games have gone under the total, for an average of just 144 points — 14 fewer than any other team in the competition. The only game to clear the total in a Collingwood match was against Brisbane, when the Lions put on 119 points with the Pies missing Nick Daicos.
Carlton’s games have trended slightly higher in terms of scoring, with three going over, but that is largely due to them conceding 100 points per game on average and leaking huge totals to Sydney and Adelaide. Collingwood’s forwards are averaging just 78 points per game in 2026, ranked 14th in the competition. This is a team that will not put the game away.
Showers are forecast for Thursday night which should further suppress scoring. Since 2010, games played in wet weather go under at a 70 per cent hit rate. Eight of 11 Thursday night games at the MCG have also gone under.
The stars are aligned for a low-scoring contest.
Same Game Multi
Wet weather games favour the ball-winners and both midfields should rack up the touches. Nick Daicos has had 30 or more in four straight games and racked up 36 last time against Carlton, who have no answer for him. Sam Walsh has had 30 or more in three straight against Collingwood.
Half-backs also accumulate freely against the Pies. Nic Newman has gone 19 or more in every game this season and has had 30 or more in three straight against Collingwood.
Value Bet
Carlton have now surrendered the half-time lead in three of five games this season, and started strongly last week against Adelaide as well. Collingwood have won four straight in this match-up and the second-half momentum will shift their way. The value here remains outstanding.
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