AFL Tips – Carlton v Collingwood – Round 23 2022

It’s the biggest home and away game of the year with 90,000 people expected at the MCG to witness the most important Carlton v Collingwood clash this century.

Best Bet

Collingwood
Head-to-Head

Most of the key numbers are of little help in a game the market also can’t split at time of publish.

These teams have each covered nine times head-to-head over the last decade and covered in 11 of 22 overall this year. Neither team has been great at the MCG this year, the Blues covering in two of seven at the home of footy, the Pies in five of twelve.

If this game is as close as the bookies expect and the numbers indicate, Collingwood have to be the pick given their well-publicised record in close games this year.

The Pies are 11-3 in games decided by less than 12 points and a perfect 6-0 in games decided by less than a kick. The Blues are by no measure disgraced in these numbers, sitting 3-2 in these games, but they have lost their last two.

Carlton are also a question mark against top eight teams, sitting 3-6 for the year and having lost their last three. They’ve also only led 27% of the time against top 8 teams in 2022, the lowest amount of all current finalists. The Pies have won four of their last five against the current top 8.

The Blues will no doubt be up for this contest and the opportunity to play in September for the first time in nine years, but Collingwood have been the much better team in the second half of the season and are the pick here.

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Same Game Multi

Collingwood H2H, W.Setterfield 20+ Disposals, S.Docherty 25+ Disposals, J.Elliot 2+ Goals

The Pies have conceded the most disposals of any team over the last month so let’s look to some key Carlton ball-winners here.

Will Setterfield attended 79% of centre bounces last week – the first time he had attended more than 5% all season – against Melbourne and responded with 26 disposals.

Jamie Elliot didn’t hit the scoreboard last week but was averaging 2.2 goals per game over the preceding five weeks.


Value Bet

Collingwood 1-9
Margin

As discussed, Collingwood’s performance in close games this year is astounding. Prior to their loss to Sydney last week the Pies had won six straight by 1-9 points. They’ll have the edge if this is another nail-biter.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.