AFL Tips – Brisbane v Western Bulldogs – Round 16 2022

Lions vs Bulldogs - Expert AFL Tips

The points should flow on Thursday night at the Gabba.

Best Bet

Over 174.5 Points
Total Points

Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs are the two highest scoring teams in the league and the over should cash here with ease.

What would be enormously concerning for Brisbane coach Chris Fagan in recent weeks is the Lions defensive drop off. Since Round 10 the Lions rank 15th for points against and a diabolical 18th for opposition score per inside 50.

Against the Dees last week they conceded 36 scoring shots and the Dogs forward line is clearly stronger than the Dees. The Dogs have no problem getting the ball down there either – they are the number one ranked side in the competition for inside 50s.

What will give Fagan some confidence is the potential of his tall forwards against a Dogs defence that lacks size and quality. Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Daniel McStay should get their opportunities to hit the scoreboard.

Other numbers point to a high total here. The over is 18/28 in games these sides have played in 2022, including six of the last eight for each. It is 18/23 when the Lions are favoured by two goals or more over the last two seasons.

In perfect conditions, watch the points flow.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Over 174.5 Points, R. West, E. Hipwood, D. McStay 1+ Goals

Rhylee West is quickly becoming a top tier small forward but isn’t being priced like one. We’ll take him for a snag against a side that got torched by the Dees small forwards last week.

Hipwood and McStay should both get favourable matchups and look capable of hitting the goals this week.

Value Bet

2+ Goals
Rhylee West
3+ Goals
Rhylee West

Rhylee West is a terrific price for a bag of two or more. The son of Bulldogs legend Scott is finally getting a consistent role and has kicked 2, 0 (v Geelong), 2 and 3 in his last four games. His ability to find space is particularly impressive and should lead to lots of scoring opportunities. 3+ at the $10 is also worth a play.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.