One of the most remarkable trends in AFL betting can continue,
Best Bet
There is an extraordinary correlation between Brisbane being big favourites and games going over the total.
The Lions have ranked first or second for points scored every year since 2019. In that time, when favoured by three or more goals, games have gone over the points total in 81% of games played.
The trend is even stronger in the last two years. In 2021 and 2022, the Lions have been favoured by 18 points or more on 19 occasions, with 17 of those games going over the total. Both the games that went under were played in heavy rain. Perfect conditions are forecast for Saturday night.
The Saints will back themselves to post a score against a Brisbane team that suddenly looks highly vulnerable defensively.
Since round 10 the Lions have conceded 104 points per game, up from 69 points in rounds 1-9. They conceded 99 to Fremantle – no one’s idea of an offensive powerhouse – last week.
Brisbane have been able to post big scores without him but the return of Joe Daniher can only help them offensively.
Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.
Same Game Multi
The over looks a strong play and Brisbane should be able to beat the Saints. They have an outstanding record at home and it took a very good side – in peak form – to beat them last week.
Daniher has kicked three or more goals from seven of his last eight games at the Gabba, while King is a road warrior, with 24.11 from his last seven interstate games.
Value Bet
King has been in superb form of late with multiple goals in nine of his last ten games – and 1.7 in the other. Happy to back him to kick a bag against a Lions defence that has been vulnerable to key forwards this season.
