Melbourne boast an outstanding record against Brisbane and can be confidently backed to maintain it.
Melbourne are an outstanding road side and should be able to maintain their dominance over the Brisbane Lions in a match that should be played at finals like intensity.
The Dees are a perfect six from six interstate this season, with an average winning margin of more than five goals.
It’s also impossible to ignore the Demons record against the Lions. They have won and covered in all three games in the last two years. This includes a finals blowout in neutral territory last year, and a 64 point thrashing just two months ago.
Yes, Brisbane are a better team at home, but there are plenty of signs that they are a long way off their best. They should have lost to St Kilda last Friday and their game, particularly defensively, is not in good shape.
The Dees have been playing much better football of late, but without seeing out four quarters. They should take enormous confidence from their come from behind win over Carlton last week.
Brisbane’s game relies upon dominance around the middle and overwhelming scoring power in attack. This hasn’t worked against the Dees. Man for man, the Dees midfield is superior. And the Dees have the defensive depth to match the Lions talented forward line.
Back Melbourne with confidence.
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Defenders typically accumulate big numbers against the Dees so taking the Lions small backs for 15 or more looks a sound play. Melksham has been playing as the deepest forward in Melbourne’s structure and looks to have really found form of late.
Bailey Fritsch loves playing against the Lions with hauls of 2, 3 and 4 in his last three games against them, and he could have had more with better kicking. The Dees’ sharpshooter looks good value for a bag of four or more here.