The Lions are on their way up the ladder while the Demons are playing like a side set to miss the finals. Plenty is on the line on Friday night at the Gabba.
Best Bet
The line here is simply too big.
The Dees are struggling with injury and form at the moment but they haven’t been getting this many points in a game since playing the rampant Crows in 2017.
While the form of the Dees midfield is a real concern, they do welcome back Jake Lever to the defence which gives them some hope of containing the Lions forwards.
The other factor to consider is that Brisbane has been a poor favourite this season. The Lions have only covered four from ten as favourite this season and two from six when favoured at the Gabba.
Just a fortnight ago they failed to put away a Saints side that they allowed to score 16 goals. Yes, they were outstanding against Port last week, but as pointed out in that preview, the Lions best performances have tended to come on the road this season.
The Dees have also been a good play as road underdogs, having covered in five of six with that status, causing head to head upsets on four occasions.
They’ll need to be better than they were against North last week, but the Dees can cover this big line.
Insights
🔥 Melbourne as Underdogs: Melbourne has covered the line in 13 of its last 15 matches as an underdog.
🔴 Melbourne’s Recent Struggles: Melbourne has won only two of its last six matches, with one win coming by just three points against North Melbourne.
🚀 Brisbane’s High-Scoring Streak: Each of Brisbane’s last six matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
Same Game Multi
Jack Viney made a welcome return to form last week and with Clayton Oliver likely to get plenty of attention, should get his chance for a nice haul again.
Max Gawn has cleared 20 in four of his last five and had 23 and 29 in his last two against the Lions.
Dayne Zorko has been super consistent in the back half for the Lions, clearing 25 in nine of his last twelve.
Value Bet
Obviously a bit contradictory to what we’ve put in above, but the Lions have been tremendously fast starters of late while the Dees have had very slow beginnings against Collingwood and Freo. If Brisbane are to win this one, they will likely be on top early.
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