Expecting another high scoring Q Clash even if the Suns can keep it closer.
In video game terms, the Brisbane Lions are the boss at the end of the level that the Gold Coast Suns must vanquish in order to progress.
For the last few years the Suns have just been mashing their buttons in the vain hope that something will work, but in their Round 6 defeat at the hands of their cross state rivals by 52 points, there were some signs that they are getting closer.
Although the Lions won by 52 points, the Suns actually won the inside 50 count. The Lions kicked 21.6 to 11.14, so it is fair to say that the scoreboard flattered Brisbane.
With the Suns midfield brigade being greatly improved, Brisbane can’t rely on the dominance out of the middle that has allowed them to control games against their rivals.
There are some warning signs as well for the Lions, with their tall forwards, Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay struggling for form in recent weeks.
If the Lions are to win, they will need big games from the smalls, Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey (who kicked six in Round 6) and Lincoln McCarthy. They have their chance as well with the Suns missing their small backs Lachie Well, Wil Powell and Connor Budarick.
This shapes up as an excellent game to bet the over. Eleven of the last thirteen Q clashes have gone over including the last five, and ten of sixteen Lions games this season have gone over.
The Suns are not averse to a shootout either, the majority of their games in 2022 having gone over the total.
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Staying away from the Lions tall forwards in present form.
Mabior Chol has goaled in every game this season and Levi Casboult in all but two. With the Suns small defender cupboard bare, there should be plenty of goals available for the Lions goalsneaks.
Charlie loves playing the Suns, with 30 goals against them, the most of any team. He bagged four earlier this year, two bags of three in 2021, 2.3 in 2020 and six in 2019.