Geelong’s unbeaten record is the product of an extremely soft schedule and looks set to be blemished by the Lions at the Gabba on Saturday night.
Best Bet
Geelong are unbeaten in 2024 off the back of a highly favourable schedule to start the 2024 season.
Thus far the Cats have beaten St. Kilda, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Western, and North. The Dogs are the only side among them currently in the 8 (at 3-3, courtesy of a huge percentage booster over the Saints) and their combined win loss record is 6-21.
Despite an incredibly soft draw, they rank lowly in key metrics like contest possession differential (14th), clearance differential (17th), tackle differential (9th) and disposal efficiency (9th).
Where they do rank well is in intercepts, because they are playing bad teams. To be fair, the Cats have a potent forward line and an excellent backline, but their lack of class and depth through the middle will leave them exposed against top teams. And the Lions are a top team.
Make no mistake, they destroyed the Demons at the MCG last week and after a rough start to the season, things are now looking positive. The forward line, in particular, started poorly but looked highly potent against the Dees last week.
The Cats have not been great travellers in recent years, only covering five of their last fifteen outside of Victoria. They also got beaten by Brisbane in this game last year.
Chips in the Lions.
Same Game Multi
Tom Stewart is an absolute force to be reckoned with in the Cats defence and while the Lions will seek to limit his influence, there is only so much that can be done.
Charlie Cameron did very well not to be suspended for this one and he should have no trouble getting amongst the goals here.
Value Bet
The Lions midfield can well and truly get on top in this one. Their forward line has held them back so far, but Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher can get plenty of supply and propel their side to a big win.
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