AFL Tips - Geelong v Brisbane Lions - Qualifying Final 2025

Geelong and Brisbane meet for the fourth time in twelve months on Friday night with the right to host a home preliminary final on the line.

Best Bet

Brisbane +6.5

Line

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$1.90

Brisbane have been a cash cow all season thanks to some incredible betting trends, and there’s no reason to jump off now.

The Lions’ record as underdogs is remarkable. The reigning premiers have won eight of their last nine as outsiders and covered the line in each of their last 15, yes 15, games from this position.

Their other numbers are just as strong, covering in eight straight night games, four consecutive away finals, and four of their last five at the MCG.

Brisbane have troubled Geelong recently, winning the last three meetings. Their ability to score from defensive-half transition has been key, putting up 59 and 52 points from D50 in their two clashes this year. Despite finishing top two, the Cats have conceded the seventh-most points from defensive 50 in 2025.

Geelong’s recent betting record in week-one finals is also shaky, losing eight of their last 11 in the opening week of September, while Brisbane have won four of their past five.

The Lions regain Lachie Neale and Jarrod Berry, with Berry capable of locking down Max Holmes or Bailey Smith if required. Geelong, meanwhile, enter virtually full strength with just one player on their injury list.

The numbers are impossible to ignore. Back Brisbane to at least stay within a goal.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane +6.5, L.Morris 2+ Goals, K.Lohmann Anytime Goal, B.Smith 25+ Disposals

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TBC

Logan Morris has kicked 14 goals in his last four games and five against the Cats last time they met.

Kai Lohmann was superb in last year’s finals and has kicked eight goals in his last five games.

Bailey Smith has had 25+ in 19 of his last 20 games.

Value Bet

Brisbane -23.5

Alternate Handicap

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$4.50

The Cats haven’t lost many games recently, but when they have, it has usually been by a decent margin.

Three of their last four defeats have come by more than 18 points, with their last two by 26 and 41 points (against Brisbane).

If Chris Scott’s men are unable to stop the Lions transition from D50, there could be a big gap between these teams again.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.