AFL Tips - Brisbane v Carlton

Two of the competition’s most reliable betting trends collide at the Gabba on Friday night.

Best Bet

Carlton +20.5

First Half Line

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$1.90

Two of our favourite trends combine here and it makes for a compelling bet.

Carlton are 6-2 in first halves and 0-8 in second halves with a percentage of just 52. They come out hard, compete well in the opening half and then fade badly. Brisbane, meanwhile, continue to be awful home favourites, covering in just ten of their last 27 from that position.

Michael Voss is expected to make a raft of changes as he attempts to save his coaching career, with George Hewitt set to be one of the inclusions. Brisbane lose Ty Gallop from their backline. Neither change dramatically alters the shape of this match-up.

Back the Blues to remain in the game for the first half yet again.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane Win, Carlton +21.5 First Half, W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals, C.Rayner 2+ Goals

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$5.00

Will Ashcroft has had 25 or more disposals in each of his last three home games and averages two more touches at home than away.

Cam Rayner has enjoyed this match-up lately, kicking five goals across the two Lions games against Carlton in 2025.

Value Bet

Carlton/Brisbane

Half Time / Full Time

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$7.00

It feels less likely against a powerhouse like Brisbane but the price is too good to ignore for something that has occurred 11 times since the start of 2025. Carlton lead at half-time, Brisbane take over in the second half. It is the most Carlton outcome imaginable and at $7.00 it cannot be dismissed.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.