The Lions and Blues meet at the Gabba for the second straight September with the home side once again strong favourites.
Best Bet
Brisbane have been a consistently poor favourite all season and the Blues look capable of pushing a side they have caused a lot of problems.
Carlton have lost four of their last five coming into this one but they get some key personnel back here.
Sam Docherty, Mitch McGovern, Harry McKay, Zac Williams, Tom De Koning, and Adam Cerra are all key players returning although the continued absence of Charlie Curnow will hurt.
At the same time, there are question marks over just how fit they all are, but the conservatism with Curnow suggests that Blues coach Michael Voss isn’t rolling the dice altogether.
Carlton’s recent record against the Lions should give them some confidence too. They knocked off the Lions as big underdogs in Round 1, and in last year’s Preliminary Final pushed them all the way to lose by 16 points.
The real worry for the Lions is their inability to finish off games. They gave up big leads against the Giants and Pies, and even let Essendon back into the game in the final round.
Brisbane have only covered two of nine this year when favoured by three goals or more, The Blues have only been outsiders five times this year – covered in three – and this is easily the biggest number they have started with.
The Blues have the midfield personnel to match the Lions and this game should be much closer than the market suggests.
INSIGHTS
📈 Carlton Away: Carlton has managed to win 4 of their last 8 away games. 🌟
🏟️ Brisbane Lions at Home: Brisbane Lions have won 4 of their last 6 games at home but haven’t secured a win by 40+ points in their last 9 home games. 🛡️
🆚 Lions as favourites: Brisbane have only covered twice from nine games when favoured by 18 points or more this season. 🏉
Same Game Multi
Dayne Zorko has been a key playmaker in the back half for Brisbane since Keidean Coleman went down, and has had 25 or more in five of his last six.
For the Blues, Nic Newman has had 25 or more in four straight and the personnel changes shouldn’t affect him too much, while Patrick Cripps has been in monstrous form with 25 or more in ten straights.
Value Bet
They Blues upset the Lions in Round 1 and the fact is that Brisbane have been fragile as favourites all season, even when seemingly in control of games. There just isn’t that much between these two teams.
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