This looks a belting for the record books at the Gabba on Saturday night.
Best Bet
Brisbane -63.5 ($1.90)
The line for this game is already the largest since Hawthorn went in 65.5 point favourites against Carlton in Round 17, 2015.
It’s not big enough.
This will be an almighty beating. It will bring back memories of the early days of Gold Coast and GWS. The Lions could quite easily pile on 30 goals.
As we’ve frequently discussed, Brisbane obliterate bad opposition at the Gabba. Their last 12 wins at home have come by margins of 7, 108, 11, 38, 85, 49, 44, 64, 28, 24, 49 and 57 points. An average of 47 points.
West Coast are one of the worst teams we’ve seen in the last decade. They’re dead last on the ladder with a percentage of 55. They’ve lost their last three games to Richmond by 109 points at home, Port by 84 points and Sydney by 63 points at home. This week they run into the best offensive team in the AFL with one of the best home ground records in recent memory.
To top things off, they will have over 20 players unavailable from their list. The latest additions to their injury list are captain Luke Shuey and forward Jack Petruccelle who both have done hamstrings, while Alex Witherden, Greg Clark, Jackson Nelson are in Covid protocols. Tom Barass may return, but they will still need some WAFL top-ups.
Pray for West Coast.
Same Game Multi
Brisbane -65.5 / Charlie Cameron & Daniel McStay 3+ Goals / Zac Bailey 2+ Goals / D.Rich 20+ Disposals ($8.00)
If Brisbane win by 11+ goals, all their gun forwards are going to be kicking multiple goals. With Joe Daniher missing, expect a big game from Daniel McStay. Daniel Rich has cleared 20 disposals in every game in 2022.
Value Bet
Brisbane -114.5 ($13.00)
This is the biggest line we could find. We’ll happily go larger if it’s available.
We successfully backed a 100+ point margin for Brisbane against North at 15s a few weeks back and are very keen to back it again here.
This is what we are expecting:
