AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Sydney – Round 22 2025

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Best Bet

Sydney +26.5

Line

$1.90

Our golden rule for Brisbane this year remains: lay them as favourites, back them as underdogs.

The reigning premiers have been a poor betting play when favoured, covering the line in just five of 16 games from that position. They’ve also struggled at home, failing to cover in 10 straight day games at the Gabba and in seven of nine overall.

Chris Fagan’s side hasn’t been punishing weaker opposition either, reflected in a percentage of just 112.1 – only the eighth best in the league.

The Swans have lifted in the second half of the season, winning six of their last eight. Outside of last year’s Grand Final, they’ve covered the line in three of their last four against the Lions, with the largest margin in those games just 16 points.

Recent history supports the underdog too, with the outsider covering in the last six meetings between these teams.

There is also a very high chance of rain in Brisbane on Saturday, with up to 20mm forecast. That will help keep scoring, and potentially the margin, down. Underdogs of 24+ points cover at 66% in the rain since 2010.

With Lachie Neale out for Brisbane, and the Swans likely to send Jordan and Campbell to McCluggage and Zorko respectively, expect this one to stay tight.

Same Game Multi

Sydney +26.5, W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals, C.Rayner & B.Grundy 20+ Disposals

$7.00

Rain should keep the centre square players very involved, although we’ll be steering clear of McCluggage with the tagging risk.

Will Ashcroft has had 25+ in eight of ten, and 30 last week, and Brodie Grundy has had 20+ in nine of his last ten.

We’ll also take a punt on Cam Rayner chewing up a lot of Neale’s midfield minutes. He’s good value for 20+ after three 19+ touch games in his last five.

Value Bet

Brisbane Lions 1-24

Margin

$3.40

If the rain really hits then scoring will become very difficult here. It’s hard to see Brisbane losing such a crucial match but a narrow margin could be on the cards.

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