AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide – Round 1 2022

Both teams exited last year’s finals in disappointing fashion and have plenty to play for in their season opener.

Best Bet

Port Adelaide +14.5 ($1.90)

The 14.5 number here seems too big. Port were an excellent road team last season, winning nine games although a 49 point drubbing at this venue last year was one of their losses, the other being against West Coast. 

Brisbane was a slow starter last year, losing their opening two games including a shock defeat at home in Round 1 to the Swans. 

Both teams come into this game with mostly fit teams. Charlie Dixon is missing for Port, but that should enable Mitch Georgiades and new acquisition Jeremy Finalyson to play a more prominent role. 

The dismal end to Port’s year seems to have overshadowed how good they were for most of 2022, winning 17 games in the home and away season. They look like an excellent play at the line and an upset is possible. 

Round 1 underdogs cover at a rate of 58% and backing Round 1 outsiders head to head returns a healthy 17% profit on turnover.

Same Game Multi

Port Adelaide +14.5 / Oliver Wines 25+ Disposals / Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals / Mitch Georgiades Anytime Goalscorer ($3.04)

It’s news to no one that Wines and Neale attract plenty of the footy while Georgiades looked outstanding in the preseason and looks primed for a bigger role in Charlie Dixon’s absence.

There were no markets available with Power debutant Jackson Mead at time of writing, but he is a classic inside mid and could easily top 20 touches on debut.

Value Bet

Mitch Georgiades 4+ Goals ($10)

Georgiades recorded two bags of four or more last year and gets a great opportunity to put his stamp on this season with a big bag against the Lions.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.