AFL Tips - Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne

Both Brisbane and North Melbourne enter their Gather Round clash at Norwood Oval in search of their first win of the season.

Best Bet

Under 180.5

Total Points

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$1.90

This may seem like a strange play given North Melbourne games are averaging 200 points but Norwood Oval is unlike any other AFL venue and should be approached accordingly.

The home of the Redlegs in the SANFL is just 100m wide, a full 15m narrower than the already ridiculously slender Kardinia Park.

Looking through SANFL results, this leads to very tight, low-scoring matches with an average total points of just 136 from the last ten games at the venue. Only one team broke the 100 point mark in 2023.

One AFL game was played at Norwood in Gather Round last year, a 77-75 win for the Giants over Hawthorn, with the total of 152 falling a few goals short of the 165 line.

The massive number of 180.5 doesn’t appear to have taken the venue into account so the under looks a strong play.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane 1-39, Under 180.5 Points, L.Neale & L.Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals

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TBC

A lower projected score should keep the margin reasonable in this contest with the Lions surely experienced enough to topple the young Kangaroos.

What we also saw in the GWS v Hawthorn contest last year was high disposals for the midfielders with five players racking up 30+. Back each side’s gun clearance player for 25+ touches. Josh Dunkley could be included for some extra value as well.

Value Bets

Lachie Neale

35+ Disposals

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$TBA

Neale had 35 last week against the Pies and gets a great opportunity for another big game against North in what should be a highly contested game. He’s hit this mark in two of his last five against the Roos.

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