The Kangaroos scored a rare win over a covid-depleted West Coast last week but look to be in for a world of hurt at the Gabbatoir.
Best Bet
Brisbane Lions -42.5 ($1.92)
The Lions are capable of smashing teams, especially at home.
In 2021, they won nine of eleven at the Gabba by an average margin of 49 points. This included wins over Sydney (31pts), Essendon (57pts), Port Adelaide (49pts), GWS (64pts), Geelong (44pts), Gold Coast (49pts), Collingwood (85pts) and West Coast (38pts).
They also beat the Suns by 73pts at Metricon, the Crows by 52pts in Adelaide and Freo by 64pts in Perth.
A seven goal start just isn’t enough against the wooden spoon favourites missing three its starting five midfielders in Luke Davies-Uniacke, Tarryn Thomas and Ben Cunnington.
Cunnington’s unfortunate absence, in particular, continues to especially hurt the Roos. They’ve cleared the line in 68% of games he’s played since the start of 2020 and only 36% without him.
North’s young midfield will get pummelled by the AFL’s best in the coming weeks, starting with Brisbane on Saturday.
Same Game Multi
Brisbane -42.5 / C.Cameron 2+ Goals / L.McCarthy Anytime Goal / H.McCluggage Anytime Goal ($6.25)
North tend to defend talls quite well, only conceding 38.5% of their goals to players over 190cm in 2021 – the second least of any team.
Their small defenders get touched up so we’ll target Cameron and McCarthy for goals, as well as midfielder McCluggage who kicked three last week.
Value Bet
Brisbane -59.5pts ($2.88)
As discussed, North are primed for a belting so pick your own line and cheer on the goals. Lines of -79.5 ($6.00) and -99.5 ($15.00) could certainly be covered.
