AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v GWS Giants – Round 11 2022

Mark McVeigh’s coaching career got off to the perfect start last week but he’s set for a reality check in Brisbane on Saturday.

Best Bet

Brisbane Lions -38.5
Line

Despite a big win over the rancid Eagles last week, GWS have been a bad football team all year.

The Giants have covered the line in three of ten games and one of seven as outsiders. They’ve won just 15 quarters – ranked 15th – and only one final quarter.

This week they’ll face the competition’s best attack at their home fortress – a venue where GWS have lost their last three by an average margin of 40 points.

Brisbane have demolished bad competition at the Gabba recently, covering in 9 of 14 home and away season games there with an average winning margin of 43 points.

They were unquestionably poor last week against Hawthorn, however, the Hawks have become Brisbane’s bogey team, beating the Lions the last three times they’ve met. Forgive that one.

Prior to that, Brisbane had covered in their last four games and handed out beltings to Adelaide (36 points), West Coast (72), Gold Coast (55) and North Melbourne (108) throughout 2022.

It’s very unlikely that Mark McVeigh has managed to turn GWS into a team capable of challenging the Lions at the Gabba in the space of two weeks. Back the home team to cover.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.


Same Game Multi

Brisbane -32.5, C.Cameron 3+ Goals, O.McInerney Anytime Goal, D.Rich 20+ Disposals

Given McVeigh spun the magnets last week and burnt many punters (Harry Himmelberg to full back – ouch), steer clear of GWS players in this game.

Charlie Cameron has scored 3+ goals in his last five games while big Oscar has kicked one in each of his last three.

Daniel Rich has cleared 20 disposals in each of his last nine games.


Value Bet

Brisbane Over 119.5 Points
Total Points

Coincidently, these two teams played in the two highest scoring games of 2022 last week. Hawthorn v Brisbane totalled 229 points and GWS v West Coast totalled 224.

The total is set at 177.5 for this game – the second highest of any game this year. While Brisbane will hold up their end of the bargain, GWS have recorded four scores of 60 or less this year, including just 35 points against the Cats in Round 8. There’s less confidence in their ability to score, especially at the Gabba.

The Giants conceded 86 points to West Coast last week, the Eagles second best score this year. If they choose to play shootout football again this week, Brisbane will feast.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.