AFL Tips - Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns

The biggest match in Queensland football history sees the Lions host the Suns with a preliminary final spot on the line for the winner.

Best Bet

Brisbane -8.5

Head-to-Head

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$1.90

The numbers are grim for the Suns.

Gold Coast have always struggled against their big brother, winning just two of their last 13 against Brisbane and covering the line in only three. At the Gabba the derby has been even worse, 2-12 all time and without a cover in their last seven.

Their road form is just as ugly. They have failed to cover in 16 of 18 as an away underdog and 12 of 13 as an away underdog coming off a win. Damien Hardwick has challenged his young side to “grow up,” but the record suggests they are not there yet.

If the Suns are to win it will be through Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell dominating the midfield and exploiting Lachie Neale’s absence as Brisbane have more depth and experience at both ends of the ground.

While Chris Fagan rarely tags, it is hard to imagine him not turning to Josh Dunkley or Jarrod Berry if the Suns’ stars get rolling, just as they did in that 66-point drubbing at Carrara in Round 20.

The Lions were flat against Geelong last week but their September record is strong. They have covered in five of their last six finals and three of their last four at home. They have also covered in eight of their last nine night games.

With too many hardened finals campaigners and too much experience, Brisbane should avoid a straight sets exit against such an inexperienced September outfit.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane -8.5, C.Rayner 2+ Goals, H.McCluggage 25+ Disposals, Z.Bailey 20+ Disposals

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$5.00

Cam Rayner is always an awkward match-up and has been in great form lately, kicking 2+ in five of his last six, including last time out against the Suns.

Hugh McCluggage played his worst game of the season last week, collecting just 14 touches. The Suns are ‘all gas, no brakes’, so don’t expect him to get the same opposition attention. He’d had 25+ in his previous six matches.

Zac Bailey is being used more through the midfield and has had 20+ in eight straight.

Value Bet

Brisbane 40+

Margin

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$4.50

The Lions remain a hardened finals side and there’s some chance of a big emotional comedown for the Suns following their last second win over Fremantle. A long trip home from Perth for a young side is also a concern.

Brisbane’s average winning margin against the Suns at the Gabba is 41 points and they could put a margin on here if Rowell and Anderson are contained.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.