AFL Tips - Brisbane Lions v Geelong

Rain could play havoc when the Cats travel north to play the Lions in a rescheduled game from Opening Round.

Best Bet

Geelong +10.5

Line

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$1.90

Geelong have a sensational record against Brisbane at the Gabba and look a great bet here.

The Cats have covered the line in seven of their last eight games against the reigning premiers at their home ground, winning five of those games including a 26-point victory last year.

Up to 60mm of rain is also forecast on Saturday, which also favours the visitors. Geelong are historically a terrific wet weather team, winning 23 of 26 games played in rainy conditions.

Chris Scott’s team were awful last week against, but that form is best ignored as they have inexplicably struggled in that match-up for some time, losing their last four against St Kilda at Marvel.

Brisbane were very scratchy against the Eagles last week, only getting home by 19 points after being 10-goal favourites pre-match. They will be bolstered by the return of Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann, while Tom Stewart and Bailey Smith are both expected to play for Geelong.

In what could be a low-scoring slog in the wet, a near two-goal start for Geelong is the clear bet in this one.

Same Game Multi

Geelong +10.5, T.Stengle & K.Lohmann 2+ Goals

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TBC

We’ll look to the smalls in what could be tough conditions. Tyson Stengle has kicked 2+ in 11 of his last 13 away games while Kai Lohmann has scored 2+ in three of his last four when Brisbane are favourites.

Value Bet

Under 120.5 Points

Alternate Total Points

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TBC

These two teams played out an absolute snoozer at this venue last year, only putting a combined 100 points on the scoreboard. Keep an eye on the weather radar on Saturday, and if they rain is going to hang around, then some lower totals are certainly in play.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.