AFL Tips - Brisbane Lions v Geelong

The Grand Final rematch heads to the Gabba on Thursday night, and Geelong look well placed to make a statement against the reigning premiers.

Best Bet

Geelong +15.5

Line

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$1.90

The Cats look back to their best and the numbers support them staying close.

Geelong have historically enjoyed this match-up, covering in 16 of 24 overall and eight of nine at the Gabba specifically. Brisbane remain an inconsistent favourite, covering in just 39 per cent of games when shorter-priced since 2023.

The Cats’ last five quarters have been outstanding. They blew away North Melbourne in the final term two weeks ago before comprehensively dismantling Collingwood last week.

Geelong make four changes but come out the better side for it, with Gryan Miers, Jack Henry and Mark Blicavs all returning. Mitch Edwards replaces Rhys Stanley in the ruck, which is a slight downgrade but manageable given the form of those coming in. The Lions regain Darcy Gardiner.

Some forecast rain could limit either team’s ability to push out a margin so back the visitors to remain right in this contest.

Same Game Multi

Geelong +15.5, W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals, K.Lohmann 2+ Goals, J.Martin Anytime Goal

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$6.50

Mullin is likely to go to Lachie Neale or Hugh McCluggage, which should leave Will Ashcroft free to accumulate. He has had 25 or more disposals in seven of his last eight home games.

Jack Martin has kicked a goal in seven straight while Kai Lohmann has kicked two or more in six of his last seven home games.

Value Bet

Geelong 1-39

Winning Margin

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$3.30

The Cats have won ten of their last 15 at the Gabba and have looked in terrific touch over the past fortnight. Brisbane continue to mix and match their form so an upset wouldn’t shock here.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.