AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Essendon – Round 17 2022

Brisbane vs Essendon - Expert AFL Tips

Covid chaos has hit Brisbane leaving a very uncertain betting match-up on Sunday at the Gabba.

Best Bet

Peter Wright
3+ Goals

Seven big outs to Brisbane’s line-up makes this a revolting betting prospect from a head-to-head or line perspective. The Lions’ depth just hasn’t been tested to this extent over the last couple of years given their golden run with injury.

The data on totals isn’t much clearer. The last seven games head-to-head have gone under but both teams rank top six for average total points in their games this year. It’s impossible to know how Brisbane’s scoring power will be affected by these outs.

Instead we’ll look to big ‘Two Metre Peter’ Wright to jag a few goals with All-Australian defender Harris Andrews missing for the Lions.

The former Sun has booted four goals in two of his last three games and 2.1 last week against Sydney. He also kicked three against the Lions back in Round 2 with Andrews in the side.

Wright is one of the most targeted forwards in the AFL given the Bombers limited key forward stocks and should bag at least a hat trick of goals here.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.


Same Game Multi

Peter Wright & Charlie Cameron 3+ Goals, L.Neale 30+ Disposals

Charlie Cameron kicked four last week and has recorded 3+ goals in 7 of his 15 games this year.

Lachie Neale has picked up 30+ touches in four of his last five games and had 41 against the Bombers in Round 2.


Value Bet

Essendon +22.5 / Under 180.5 Points
Double

If you are keen to play lines or totals, the plus and the under is where I’d lean.

The Bombers are one of the most untrustworthy sides the comp. They’ve rolled top eight contenders in Sydney and St Kilda in the last three weeks but managed to lose to then last placed West Coast in between.

Despite this, Brisbane’s outs are just massive so a near four-goal start for an Essendon side capable of challenging good teams on their day looks value.

The 180.5 point total is the second-highest total of any game this year. Brisbane’s ball movement will be severely limited without Rich, Zorko and Coleman in particular so their scoring opportunities should be down.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.