AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Essendon – Round 12 2025

A beaten up Bombers head to the Gabba on Thursday night to take on the Brisbane Lions.

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Best Bet

Brisbane Lions -43.5

Line

$1.90

Essendon have a long, long injury list and look completely outgunned here.

The Bombers have just five fit players available over 190cm, with a host of first-choice talls missing including Draper, Reid, McKay, Jones, Ridley and Langford.

Height aside, they’re also terribly inexperienced. Their side will be almost two years and over 30 games less experienced on average than the reigning premiers. That includes 36-year-old 334-gamer Todd Goldstein boosting their numbers.

Essendon also struggle as big underdogs, covering in just 5 of 18 when starting as more than four-goal outsiders. In their last nine interstate games when underdogs by 24 points or more, they’ve lost by an average of 52 points.

Brisbane have a poor record as home favourites, covering in only 2 of 12, but this is a golden chance to lift their percentage in a tight top four race.

With the home team covering in five of Essendon’s last six, expect a one-sided start to round 12.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane Lions -43.5, E.Hipwood & L.Morris 2+ goals, W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals

TBC

Brisbane talls are the obvious angle here.

The 190cm Jayden Laverde has gone from the VFL to Essendon’s first choice key defender in the space of three weeks. He’s likely to get 203cm Eric Hipwood.

No idea who gets Logan Morris, who has kicked five in his last two games.

Will Ashcroft has had 26+ in five straight.

Value Bet

Cam Rayner

3+ Goals

$4.50

Rayner has been pretty ordinary this year but he has kicked a 2 and a 3 in his last three games. He’s another strong marking option who could take advantage of Essendon’s small back six.

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