It’s a rematch of the 2023 Grand Final to kick off AFL Round 5 with Brisbane hosting Collingwood at the Gabba.
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Best Bet
The Lions continue to be horrible favourites to back, especially at home.
The reigning premiers have failed to cover the line in eight of their last nine at the Gabba. Since the start of 2024, they’ve played seven top eight teams at home for a 3-4 record with only two covers. The average winning margin in their wins has only been eight points.
Despite sitting 5-0, Chris Fagan’s team are yet to get out of second gear in 2025. They were more than five goals down at half time last week against th before their spectacular second half rally, and they’ve only beaten the two worst teams in the competition, West Coast and Richmond, by 28 and 19 points respectively.
The Pies, meanwhile, have won four straight since losing to GWS in opening round, including a dominant 31-point win over Sydney last week in Adelaide. They beat the Lions in both meetings last year as underdogs, including a 20-point win at the Gabba and have covered the line in eight of eleven at the Gabba.
With Jordan De Goey set to return, the Pies look a good bet to at least keep this within two goals.
Same Game Multi
Bobby Hill has a good record against Brisbane, kicking 9.6 in his last four against them. He’s also booted 2+ in four of his last five on the road.
Steele Sidebottom is relishing his return to the midfield, he’s had 20+ in four straight. The Lions don’t tag and Nick Daicos has recorded 25+ in five straight against them.
Value Bet
Collingwood have a good record in this match-up and at this venue so a narrow win would not surprise.
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