AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Collingwood – Round 5 2022

After a hot start to 2022, the Pies hit the wall against West Coast in Round 4. It won’t get any easier on Thursday night in Brisbane.

Best Bet

Brisbane -29.5 ($1.90)

As we touched on in our Brisbane v North Melbourne preview two weeks ago, the Lions have developed a reputation for destroying teams at the Gabba.

They won nine of their eleven matches at home in 2021 by an average winning margin of 49 points, including an 85 point win over the Pies in Round 22. Eight of those nine wins were by five goals or more. They’ve already thumped North Melbourne by 108 points there in 2022.

Collingwood have started 2022 on a positive note with wins over St Kilda and Adelaide, plus a very competitive effort against Geelong. Inaccuracy cost them last week against West Coast, where expected scoring had them winning by 35 points, not losing by 13.

The Pies may have been competitive here if not for their mounting injury toll. Forwards Brody Mihocek, Jamie Elliot and Jack Ginnivan are all set to miss. Those three have combined for a third of Collingwood’s goals in 2022.

Brisbane have conceded just 68 points to opposition at home since the start of 2021 while averaging 108 themselves. Coming off a five-day break, it’s hard to see Collingwood putting enough on the scoreboard to get close the Lions on Thursday night.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane -29.5 / J.Daniher & C.Cameron 2+ Goals / D.Rich 20+ Disposals ($3.75)

Joe Daniher has begun 2022 superbly, averaging three goals per game through four rounds.

Charlie Cameron got a hold of Collingwood in Round 22 last year, kicking six goals straight. He’s kicked 2+ in each of his last three games.

Daniel Rich has recorded 20+ disposals in 14 of his last 15 games. He gets a lot of free touches from kick ins, taking nine of Brisbane’s 13 last week and playing on every time.

Value Bet

Jordan DeGoey 3+ Goals ($5.20)

Collingwood coach Craig McRae has already hinted he’ll need to get ‘creative’ with his injury-hit forward line this week, and with Taylor Adams also returning, DeGoey should see more time in attack. He has kicked 1.4, 1.0 and 2.3 playing primarily as a mid this year.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.