The back-to-back premiers host Collingwood at the Gabba on Friday night in what could be a tighter match than the market suggests.
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Best Bet
Collingwood look a good bet here with the start, and the numbers behind Brisbane as a favourite make this even more compelling.
The Magpies have been one of the competition’s most reliable underdog bets in recent times, covering the line in seven straight games as the longer-priced team. Their solid start to 2026 has been built on disciplined, suffocating defensive football, with the Pies conceding just 80 points per game against GWS, Adelaide and St Kilda this season.
Brisbane’s injury toll is mounting. Hugh McCluggage, Darcy Gardiner and Noah Answerth are all out, adding to what has already been a disrupted start to the Lions’ title defence. Collingwood also miss Darcy Moore and Scott Pendlebury, but they have shown through the first three rounds they can absorb personnel losses without losing their defensive shape.
Brisbane’s record as favourites is a genuine concern. They have covered the line in just seven of 21 games as the shorter-priced team, including only four of 13 as home favourites.
Seven straight covers as underdogs is not a fluke, it is the product of a side that believes in its system and executes it. Back them to do it again on Thursday night.
Same Game Multi
Brisbane rarely tag, which means Nick Daicos should be free to do exactly what he has done in every game this season. He has racked up 33 or more disposals in all three outings in 2026 and there is no reason to expect anything different here.
Will Ashcroft’s role will expand with McCluggage sidelined. He has already had 30 or more disposals in three of his last four games and with extra midfield minutes virtually guaranteed, the 25+ mark looks worth playing.
Dayne Zorko has been as consistent as anyone at this level, recording 25 or more disposals in seven straight games.
Value Bet
Brisbane have been smashed by injury to start 2026, particularly in defence, and their poor record as home favourites since the start of 2025, winning just eight of 13, tells you this group is not invincible on their own turf.
Collingwood are playing disciplined, structured football and have the experience to stay in this game. An upset could be on the cards.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2026 AFL season.
