AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Carlton – Round 21 2022

Both Brisbane and Carlton are coming off disappointing defeats and will be desperate for a win at the Gabba with just three weeks until finals.

Best Bet

Over 178.5
Total Points

Brisbane equals overs in 2022.

The Lions play in the highest scoring matches this season, averaging 180.7 points per game. Nine of their last eleven have gone over as have nine of the last twelve day games played at the Gabba.

Their defensive issues are the key reason why many are questioning their premiership credentials this season. Since Round 10, only the 17th and 18th-placed Eagles and Kangaroos have conceded more points than Brisbane.

Intentionally or not, Chris Fagan’s team seem content engaging in shootouts.

Carlton games have leaned under in recent weeks but they have proven themselves capable of kicking a score against poor defensive teams. They average 91.4 points per game this year versus the worst eight teams for points conceded.

This is the equal fifth highest total of the season but with Brisbane games clearing by four goals on average when they do go over, it’s not big enough.

Get on Betseeker Bingo with TopSport. If two or more listed players kick the first goal this round, you win! There are chances to win across all nine games.


Same Game Multi

Brisbane H2H, Over 178.5 Points, C.Rayner & L.McCarthy Anytime Goal, K.Coleman 20+ Disposals

Brisbane have won 17 of their last 19 at home and won’t let this one slip against the Blues, who have lost six straight at the Gabba by an average of 32 points.

Cam Rayner has kicked a goal in five of his last six games, while Lincoln McCarthy has in 10 of his last 11.

Keidean Coleman is coming off a career-high 30 touches last week. He’s had 20+ in three straight games and had 19 in each of the two games prior to that.


Value Bet

Lincoln McCarthy
3+ Goals

McCarthy is a very reliable shot for goal who always maximises his opportunities.

Over the last five games, the former Cat averages as many goals as Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood at 1.8 per game yet sits on the fourth line of betting at more than double the price of Daniher to kick three.

He’s kicked 2+ in each of his last five at the Gabba and should get plenty of looks in a high-scoring game.

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Joel has worked for more than six years at Sportsbet and BetEasy in the content and tipping space, specialising in AFL, cricket, NBA and UFC.