AFL Tips - Brisbane Lions v Carlton

Brisbane and Carlton open their 2024 season with a rematch of one of last year’s preliminary finals.

Best Bet

Over 169.5 Points

Total Points

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$1.87

This total looks a great opportunity for a big fill-up to start the new AFL season.

The first round of the new year has been a haven for overs punters for a long, long time as coaches scramble to close down off-season attacking innovation. Of the 108 ‘opening round’ games over the last 12 years, 62% have cleared the total, increasing to 70% in the last three years.

The Gabba is one of the league’s highest-scoring venues, again, especially early in the year where it’s averaged 184 points per game from its last seven round 1-4 matches.

Brisbane will look to take advantage of Jacob Weitering’s absence, which leaves a lot of responsibility on Brodie Kemp and Lewis Young to restrict a forward line which averaged 100.2 points per games at the Gabba last season.

Expect the home side to easily clear triple figures and with Carlton averaging 74 themselves in 2023 and seven of the last eight between these teams at this venue going over, we should be in for a shootout.

Same Game Multi

Brisbane H2H, Over 169.5 Points, Daniher & Hipwood 2+ Goals, McCarthy Anytime Goal

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$6.00

Brisbane won 14 from 14 at home last year and should have far too much firepower for a Carlton team missing Weitering, Walsh, Motlop, Martin and Marchbank.

Brisbane’s key forwards should feast on Kemp and Young. Daniher has kicked 2+ in 13 of his last 15 at the Gabba as has Hipwood has in seven of his last 12.

Our favourite anytime goalscorer Lincoln McCarthy should pop up for at least one too, as he did in his last 10 matches last year.

Value Bet

Joe Daniher

4+ Goals

Bet Now

$5.30

As mentioned, this looks a terrific match-up for Big Joe, who kicked some monster bags at home in 2023, including 4+ in four of his last ten and 5+ in two of his last three.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2024 AFL season.