The new AFL season is nearly upon us, with 17 clubs trying to stop Brisbane from completing a premiership three-peat. Here are our best outright bets for the 2026 AFL season.
Best Bet
The Lions are rightly installed as clear premiership favourites after winning last year’s decider by 47 points despite missing Jack Payne, Jarrod Berry, Lincoln McCarthy, Keidean Coleman and Noah Answerth, while Lachie Neale was hampered and only entered as the substitute in the second half. Even without key pieces, they were comfortably the best team in the competition.
They have not stood still either. Sam Draper and Oscar Allen strengthen the list, while the Ashcrofts, Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Wilmot and Kai Lohmann still have improvement in them.
This group has the opportunity to cement itself as one of the standout teams of the AFL era. At $4.50, the price reflects their standing, and it is hard to build a stronger premiership case at the top of the market.
Wildcard Finish
Teams that are heavily beaten on Grand Final day have a horror record the following season. The last six sides defeated by 40+ points on the final Saturday in September have all finished sixth or lower the next year.
Geelong remain a mature, well-drilled side under Chris Scott, but there are early concerns. Jeremy Cameron has had an interrupted off-season, Tyson Stengle is not expected back until later in the year and Bailey Smith is already dealing with soft tissue issues.
The Cats should remain competitive, but the depth of this list has not been tested so a drop back into the 7th to 10th range would not surprise if these issues linger.
Collingwood were outstanding through most of last year’s home and away campaign before losing six of their final nine. That fade-out is not insignificant, particularly for a side built heavily on experience.
This is a list that cannot afford injuries. The Pies have doubled down on senior talent over the last few years, largely bypassing the draft and giving limited opportunities to youngsters in pursuit of another flag. The depth simply is not there. If key pieces miss time, the cliff could arrive very suddenly.
Injuries to Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe are already concerning, Bobby Hill appears unlikely to feature again and the loss of Brody Mihocek to Melbourne removes a reliable forward target. If the injuries continue, a slide into the middle tier is on.
Best Value
The Swans finished last season strongly, coinciding with the return of Errol Gulden. When fully fit, this remains one of the most capable lists in the competition.
The arrival of Charlie Curnow fills a big hole inside 50, while Jai Serong and Malcolm Rosas Jr add further depth. Sydney were the dominant home and away side in 2024 and are well placed to return to premiership contention in 2026.
At $11, they shape as one of the better priced contenders in a season that looks open behind Brisbane.
Surely this is the year Fremantle deliver. The Dockers boast a stacked midfield, genuine wildcards in Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton and Murphy Reid, and a defence strengthened by the arrival of Judd McVee.
The talent profile is clear. If Justin Longmuir’s team can move the ball with more speed and consistently feed a dangerous forward line, this side has the capacity to sit firmly in the flag race.
