AFL Tips - Adelaide v Port Adelaide

Rain is expected to sour Ken Hinkley’s final Crows v Power Showdown on Saturday night at the Adelaide Oval.

Best Bet

Under 148.5 Points

Total Points

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$1.90

With up to 20mm of rain forecast in Adelaide on Saturday, the under looks the only way to play this game.

Since 2010, 70% of wet weather games have gone under the total, rising to 79% for wet night games. The average total in those 68 matches is just 132 points.

Adelaide’s high-powered offence has been blunted under lights, averaging only 79 points in night games compared to 110 in day and twilight matches. As a result, five of their six night games this season have gone under. Five of Port’s last six at Adelaide Oval have also stayed under the number.

Showdowns have tended to go under regardless of weather, with the last four all falling short of the total.

Expect a low-scoring clash between these bitter rivals on Saturday night.

Same Game Multi

Port Adelaide +29.5, Under 148.5 Points, Z.Butters 25+ Disposals, I.Rankine Anytime Goal

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$6.00

If the forecast rain eventuates then Port getting a five goal start looks a good play too, especially given the Crows’ reliance on their marking forwards to hit the scoreboard. Adelaide have also failed to cover in seven of their last eight night games.

Zak Butters is coming off his first sub-25 touch game in nearly two months. Expect a strong response in conditions that will suit.

Getting $1.20+ for Izak Rankine to hit the scoreboard is still great value. He’s kicked a major in nine of his last ten.

Value Bet

Adelaide 1-24

Margin

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$3.60

It’s almost impossible to see Port winning this on form, but with shocking weather predicted to keep scoring down, a narrow win to the Crows looks a very likely outcome.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.