With nothing left to play for in 2022, expect both the Crows and Roos to continue to play attacking, high-scoring footy at Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon.
The over looks a brilliant bet here with one minor caveat being the weather.
The forecast calls for showers and 1-5mm of rain, most of which should fall in the morning and early afternoon. We were handsomely rewarded by backing the rain not to arrive in last Saturday night’s Port v Richmond match and we will take the calculated risk again here.
Unless the rain hits hard, this total is two goals short of where it should be.
Seven straight North Melbourne games have gone over. Since Leigh Adams took the top job, the Roos have simplified their game plan and looked to attack at every opportunity. They’ve scored 80 points per game on average in the last five weeks after an embarrassing 54 points in the first 15 rounds. The average total in their games over that period has been 188 points.
Adelaide are certainly capable of hitting the scoreboard as well, averaging 89 points for in the last month. Crows day games at Adelaide Oval lean over, going at 57% historically including three of the last four.
Keep an eye on the forecast, but unless it gets significantly worse this total is too low.
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Darcy Fogarty is averaging 2.4 goals per game over the last ten weeks while Cam Zurhaar is averaging 3.25 over the last month. Both should get favourable match-ups here.
Rory Laird has had 30+ disposals in ten straight games.
The inspiring return of Ben Cunnington to North’s midfield will significantly affect their output so best to avoid players like Simpkin, LDU and Anderson this week.
Fogarty has finally settled in Adelaide’s forward line after an indifferent first few years in the AFL system.
The bullocking forward kicked four last week and four against North back in Round 15. He is arguably the best set shot in the game who should get plenty of looks in a high-scoring match.