AFL Tips - Adelaide v North Melbourne

North Melbourne head to Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon to face a Crows side that is a shadow of last year’s version.

Best Bet

North Melbourne +17.5

Line

Bet Now

$1.90

Despite a miserable record at Adelaide Oval, North are a great bet here.

The Roos are 0-13 at the venue and have covered in just five, but this is a different North Melbourne side in 2026. They should have beaten ladder-leading Sydney last week, with expected scoring having them winning by ten points. They are a settled, improving team ranked in the top four for both contested possession and clearance differential this season.

Adelaide simply are not the same team as last year. They rank in the bottom six for clearance and contested possession differential and their scoring has dropped from 96 points per game to 88 in a season where the average total is up by more than two goals.

Riley Thilthorpe’s likely absence leaves the Crows potentially without all three of their primary key forwards alongside Walker and Fogarty.

The Crows have failed to cover in six straight as a home favourite. North are great value at this price.

Same Game Multi

North Melbourne +17.5, L.Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals, F.O'Sullivan 20+ Disposals, Z.Duursma Anytime Goal

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$4.00

Adelaide are giving up big numbers to inside midfielders and with Xerri likely to dominate the ruck, LDU and O’Sullivan should enjoy plenty of the ball.

Zane Duursma has looked North’s most dangerous forward over the last month.

Value Bet

Z.Duursma 3+ Goals

Player Goals

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$6.00

The former No.4 pick is slowly proving his worth for the Roos, kicking 5.1 across his last two games. He is an awkward match-up with genuine aerial ability and clean hands at ground level.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.