AFL Tips – Adelaide v Melbourne – Round 16 2022

Adelaide vs Melbourne - Expert AFL Tips

If last week’s Melbourne side turns up, this could get ugly.

Best Bet

Melbourne -31.5

The reigning premiers are back to their brilliant best and if they bring the same form they showed last week, they should dominate the Crows.

Yes, the Dees did lose the corresponding clash to Adelaide last year. But overall they have a sensational record at the Adelaide Oval, winning and covering seven of their last nine.

There were two aspects of the Dees game they brought back last week. The first was pressure. Even when winning earlier this season it was nowhere near their maniacal 2021 level. Last week against the Lions, they didn’t know what hit them.

The other aspect that was back to its best was the defence. Jake Lever was picking off everything, while Steven May blanketed Joe Daniher.

May will get the big job against Taylor Walker, while Harrison Petty will go to the in-form Darcy Fogarty. They went to town against North last week, but Melbourne are a vastly different challenge.

The Crows have also struggled against good sides this season. They have only covered twice from six games against the Top 8, with the sole win coming against an out of sorts Bulldogs side by one point.

Who will take home the AFL’s top individual award? Check out our weekly AFL Brownlow Predictor for this week’s leaderboard and our tips.

Same Game Multi

Melbourne -31.5, J.Dawson 25+ Disposals, B. Smith 20+ Disposals

Opposition defenders get plenty of footy against the Dees, especially when they take the kick ins. Jordan Dawson and Brodie Smith should share those duties and have been winning a stack of ball regardless.

Value Bet

Melbourne 60+

The Dees were blowing away sides early in the season and appear to have blood in the nostrils once again. At a ground they love they are capable of doing a number on the Crows.

Avatar photo
Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.