AFL Tips - Adelaide v Hawthorn

It’s do-or-die for the Crows and Hawks on Friday night at Adelaide Oval, with the winner set for a date with Geelong and the loser going home for 2025.

Best Bet

Adelaide H2H

Head-to-Head

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$1.83

This is a brutally tough final to call.

Since the pre-finals bye was introduced, week two finals have offered no clear edge to the top-four side. Excluding 2020’s neutral venues, it’s 8-8 between teams ranked 1-4 and those ranked 5-8.

Defence is always pivotal in September, and these sides are among the top five for points conceded overall and against top-eight opposition. They’re also both ranked inside the top six for contested possessions and ground ball gets – two key numbers in more-contested, scrappy finals.

They split their 2025 meetings. Hawthorn edged a wet Launceston slog 47-44, while Adelaide took a 101-87 shootout at home in Round 21. Both will miss stars from that clash, with Will Day, the second-ranked player on the ground that night, and Izak Rankine, ranked third, sidelined.

The lean is with Adelaide. They’ve been outstanding at home, winning 11 of 13, with their only losses coming to Collingwood last week and Geelong back in Round 5. Hawthorn’s away form tells a different story. Stripping out Launceston, they’re 2-5 outside Victoria, with just one win over a top-eight side in GWS.

The schedule also favours the Crows. They come in off an eight-day break, while the Hawks face a six-day turnaround. Adelaide have won eight straight with a rest advantage, while Hawthorn have dropped three of their last four with a disadvantage. In a tight contest, that could prove important late in the game.

For those chasing history, eighth has never toppled first since the final eight was introduced.

It should be another arm-wrestle, but back the home crowd to get Adelaide home and into the final four for the first time since 2017.

Same Game Multi

Adelaide H2H, J.Gunston & T.Walker 2+ Goals, J.Rachelle Anytime Goal

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TBC

The most recent game between these teams was a very low disposal game with only one player reaching 25. If we get another shootout, then goals are the play for the same game multi.

Jack Gunston kicked four that night and has kicked 3+ in six of his last seven, while Tex Walker has kicked 2+ in six straight at Adelaide Oval.

Josh Rachelle returns and he has kicked a goal in 19 of 21 at Adelaide Oval.

Value Bet

L.Pedlar

3+ Goals

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$5.00

Luke Pedlar has popped up in Izak Rankine’s absence in the last two weeks, kicking three in each game. With Hawthorn’s defensive focus locked on the big three key defenders and Josh Rachelle, Pedlar could surprise again.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.