AFL Tips – Adelaide v Hawthorn – Round 21 2025

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Best Bet

Hawthorn +16.5

Line

$1.90

Hawthorn have been Adelaide’s kryptonite in recent times and should be able to contain their potent offence here.

The Hawks have covered the line in five straight against the Crows, and winning four of the last five. These sides met in Launceston just seven weeks ago in dreadful conditions, where Sam Mitchell’s team came away with a three-point win.

The Crows derive much of their scoring power from their tall forwards, but the Hawks boast one of the league’s best collections of tall and medium defenders in Tom Barrass, Josh Battle, James Sicily and Jack Scrimshaw. Adelaide have averaged just 63 points per game from their last five clashes with Hawthorn.

Matthew Nicks’ side are clearly in form, having won five straight and eight of their last nine, but there’s a steep drop in their offensive output against top opposition. While they average 104 points per game overall in 2025, that figure plummets to just 68 from eight games against top-eight teams.

If the Crows can’t pile on a score like they have most weeks, the Hawks should be able to stay within 16 points.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn +16.5, Under 165.5 Points, J.Soligo 20+ Disposals, I.Rankine 15+ Disposals

$5.75

The under also looks a good bet in this match-up of the AFL’s two best defensive teams over the last eight weeks. For both of these sides, five of their last six night games have gone under.

Jake Soligo has had 20+ in four straight and Izak Rankine has had 15+ in 19 straight.

Value Bet

Hawthorn

1-39 Points

$3.15

Hawthorn have had Adelaide’s number lately, winning their last three, including their last meeting at Adelaide Oval by 66 points. If the Crows talls are contained, the Hawks will again be right in this.

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