The Crows host the Bombers on Friday night at Adelaide Oval in a clash of two teams coming off their best performances of the season to date.
Best Bet
Adelaide were back to their offensive best last week and it should mean plenty of points here.
After being the second lowest-scoring team through the first month of the season, the Crows clicked into gear against the Blues, piling on 100 points.
Importantly it was led by Tex Walker, who booted four goals after just three in his first three games. The former skipper is key to Adelaide’s attack, having kicked 76 goals in 2023 – 40 more than his nearest teammate in what was the AFL’s most potent forward line.
It came at the right time for Matty Nicks’ team coming up against the defensively shaky Bombers, who are ranked 14th for points against at 91.8 points conceded per game. That number should be worse, as Essendon benefited from an inaccurate Bulldogs team who kicked 9.13 last week. Expected scoring had the Dogs kicking 20 points more.
Bombers games are averaging 179 points per game this year and the last two games between these teams cleared 200.
Expect another monster total.
Same Game Multi
See below for my head-to-head reasoning but taking on the Bombers after a win has been a profitable strategy in recent times.
Tex was back to his best last week and has kicked 3+ in four of his six home games against Essendon. A match-up with Ben McKay will hold no fears, having kicking 12 goals from his last three against North Melbourne.
Nic Martin has had 25+ in six straight.
Value Bet
Not buying a cent of Essendon stock after their win over the Bulldogs. This remains a very flaky team.
On the aforementioned expected scoring, the Bulldogs should have won last week’s game by a point with more even luck in front of the sticks. In fact, the Bombers should be 0-5 in 2024, having been fortunate on accuracy against the Hawks and Saints as well.
The Bombers get ahead of themselves after a victory, having failed to cover the line in any of their last six games following a win.
They have won their last six against the Crows, but the last three have been at Marvel Stadium and the three prior were when Adelaide were a bottoming out club.
The Crows should win this comfortably.
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