Big finals implications at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night as Collingwood chase a sixth straight win against a Crows side looking to solidify a top six position.
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Best Bet
Even this low total looks worth attacking given these teams’ long history of dour contests.
Since 2014, 14 of 18 games between these teams have gone under including each of the last seven. At Adelaide Oval specifically the under is 8-2 with an average of just 141.7 points. Those are crazy numbers.
Both teams have prioritised defence all year, leading to both teams ranking in the bottom four for the average total in their games.
There has been some chat about Collingwood rediscovering their ball movement and scoring recently, but that has coincided with an extremely easy draw. The Pies have only played bottom-six teams in their last five weeks. Against a much better defensive side, expect a return to low-scoring Collingwood footy.
Follow the numbers and take the under.
Same Game Multi
Very keen on the Crows at home here. Collingwood’s recent form is overrated given they have enjoyed an extremely easy draw.
The Pies continue to give up big numbers to half-backs and Wayne Milera should have another big game, recording 34 against Collingwood in Round 1.
Adelaide are a reasonable match-up for inside midfielders and Ed Allan has had 15 or more disposals in seven straight games.
Value Bet
Collingwood have conceded four 35-plus touch hauls to half-backs this year, equal worst in the competition, plus Milera’s own 34 back in Round 1. Milera has hit 34 twice this season so 35 is well within range.
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