Following a heated and thrilling meeting in the penultimate round of the season, Collingwood and Adelaide again square off on Thursday night with a preliminary finals berth on the line.
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Best Bet
Collingwood look the play with the start in this second meeting between these sides in just a few weeks.
Getting an eight-point start is significant given the remarkable trend of close finishes between these teams. The last six meetings have been decided by margins of 5, 10, 4, 2, 1 and 5 points.
Collingwood have historically owned this match-up. Until their narrow defeat in Round 23, they had won ten straight against Adelaide. They have also covered the spread in six straight as underdogs.
Their record at Adelaide Oval is also superb, having won their previous ten appearances at the venue before that recent loss and covering in seven straight night matches there.
Heading into Round 23, the big concern for the Pies was their vulnerability against tall forwards given the red-hot form of Thilthorpe, Fogarty and Walker. That clash, however, turned into a high-pressure, finals-like ground-ball game which restricted Adelaide’s key trio to just five combined goals. A similar style is likely here.
A major factor this time is Izak Rankine’s suspension for comments made during that match. Rankine’s x-factor, particularly around inside-50 stoppages, will be sorely missed. Adelaide have also failed to cover in three of their last four games without him.
Collingwood also dominated territory in Round 23, winning the inside-50 count 71-37. Adelaide’s defence held firm to absorb that pressure, but they will be desperate not to face a similar imbalance on Thursday night. Expected score had Collingwood winning that game by four points.
Finally, there is a significant finals experience gap between these sides. The Magpies have 27 players with September action under their belt compared to just seven for Adelaide.
Expect another tight contest, with the visitors well placed to stay within the eight-point line.
Same Game Multi
Keen to look to the most recent meeting again as a guide with a similar style of game expected.
After just 115 combined points were scored in that match-up, the under looks a good play. Also, 13 of Collingwood’s last 17 finals games have gone under.
Jack Crisp had 23 in that match-up and has a fantastic finals record so put him down for 20, while Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ in 22 straight against the Crom.
Jordan Dawson has had 20+ in 10 straight.
Value Bet
With an average margin of just 5.7 points between these teams in the last six meetings, the tribets look worth playing here.
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