AFL Tips – Adelaide v Carlton – Round 8 2025

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Best Bet

Under 174.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

The under continues to deliver in Carlton games and we’re backing it in again here.

Twelve of their last 13 have gone under the total, including six of seven this year with an average of just 171 points. The only Blues game that went over came against North Melbourne, a side whose games are averaging 202 points in 2025.

Adelaide games started high-scoring but have slowed down. They had a 152-point total against Freo last week and an unusual 86-point game against GWS in their last match at Adelaide Oval.

The Crows lose playmaker Mitch Hinge to suspension, which hurts their rebound off half-back. The Blues will be without Jack Silvagni.

In a tough match to pick, the under shapes as the best bet.

Same Game Multi

Under 174.5 Points, H.McKay 2+ Goals, B.Keays Anytime Goal, G.Hewitt 20+ Disposals

TBC

Nick Murray will miss some time with a knee injury which further impacts Adelaide’s already thin key back stocks. Harry McKay looked great on return last week and is averaging two goals per game in his last five against Adelaide.

Ben Keays is averaging 1.7 goals per game this year.

George Hewitt’s brilliant season should continue, he’s averaging 30 touches a game this year.

Value Bet

Carlton 1-24

Margin

$4.10

Carlton franked their form with a win over Geelong last week following a pair of easy kills. They’ve also won their last three games at Adelaide Oval, although two came in neutral, Gather Round matches.

Mitch Hinge and Nick Murray are big defensive outs for the home side, so an upset could be on the cards here.

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