AFL Tips - Adelaide v Carlton - Gather Round 2026

Gather Round kicks off at Adelaide Oval on Thursday night with an under-pressure Carlton side fresh off another second-half fade-out taking on the Crows.

Best Bet

Carlton +16.5

First Half Line

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$1.90

It is strange that the first-half and second-half lines have not been adjusted to reflect one of the clearest trends in the competition.

Carlton are a decent side for roughly three quarters and awful after that. Last week was the third time in four games they led at half-time and lost, this time against North after leading by 21 points. On a first-half ladder the Blues sit first with a percentage of 172.

The 1-3 Crows have been competitive without being impressive through the first month, keeping margins small against a pretty good group of teams in the Dogs, Freo, Geelong and Collingwood. Their first-half record is also 1-3 with a percentage of just 74. They seem to run out games well, with a percentage of 130 in second halves, so our favourite value bet is certainly on the cards again (see below).

Some rain is predicted which could limit Adelaide’s dangerous tall forwards and keep the margin tighter than expected. Back Carlton to be well in the contest at the main break… again.

Same Game Multi

Carlton +16.5 First Half, Under 174.5 Points, S.Berry 20+ Disposals, G.Hewitt 20+ Disposals

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$8.00

All four of Adelaide’s games have gone under this season as they continue to struggle with ball movement out of defence. The predicted rain will keep scoring down further.

Wet conditions mean more contested ball, which suits both Sam Berry and George Hewitt. Both are strong inside players who should accumulate plenty in a grind.

Value Bet

Carlton/Adelaide

Half Time / Full Time

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$7.50

They won’t let us get away with it again, will they? This bet has hit in three of four games this season and was agonisingly close in the fourth with a late Richmond comeback. The predicted rain should suit Carlton’s contested mids in the first half, but expect the legs to go in the last quarter as they have done all year. The value remains outstanding.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.