When Brisbane are big favourites games tend to go over the total.
Best Bet
Over 169.5 ($1.90)
The wheels are falling off the Adelaide wagon. They started the season well with a game based on winning contested footy and clearances but this has dropped off remarkably in the last three weeks.
Since round 6 they have been outscored by 28.6 points per game from clearance, the worst number in the league. Their pressure has dropped off remarkably, as Carlton did as they liked last week before the Crows scored some junk time goals to flatter the scoreboard.
Compounding the problem is that the last team you want to play when struggling – particularly in contested footy – is the Lions. They barely got out of first gear against the Eagles last week and still won by 75.
One trend to note in Lions games is that the over has a remarkable record when Brisbane are big favourites. In 12 games over the last two years when favoured by four goals or more, ten have gone over the total.
Adelaide do have a good record as big outsiders at home, having covered four of five when given a four or more goal head start in the last three years. They have also gone over the total in six of eight games so far this year.
Look for a high scoring game once again.
Same Game Multi
Brisbane H2H / Over 169.5 / D. Zorko 25+ Disposals / C. Cameron 2+ Goals ($3.75)
Brisbane should be winning here. Dayne Zorko is spending much more time in the middle of late, attending 46% of centre bounces last week and this number has gone up for the last month. Charlie Cameron can maintain his excellent goal scoring record against his old team.
Value Bet
Taylor Walker 4+ Goals ($5.50)
The big Texan has kicked multiple goals in each game this year, even in big losses in the last two weeks. If the Crows can get him more footy he certainly has the ability to hit the scoreboard again.
