The 2026 AFL season is almost here and with it comes a fresh set of expectations, narratives and market positions.
Before a ball is bounced, we’re assessing every club’s season win total and highlighting where the betting lines may have overreached or underestimated what’s to come.
Adelaide
Adelaide surged to a top-of-the-table finish in 2025 but were found out in finals, particularly through the midfield. Little has been done to meaningfully address that weakness.
The Crows now also move from a soft bottom-six draw to a far tougher top-six schedule, and the loss of Mark Keane hurts down back. A slight regression from last year’s total looks likely.
Brisbane Lions
This is the lock of the season. If you’ve read our futures preview, you’ll know we are chips in on Brisbane this year.
The Lions have won the last two flags by eight goals or more and have somehow improved the list. Starcevich and Ah Chee depart, but Sam Draper and Oscar Allen arrive as key pillars. Add further growth from the Ashcrofts, Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Wilmot and Kai Lohmann, plus the return of a host of injured players from last year, and the ceiling remains sky high.
A 16-plus win season is the baseline, and a run reminiscent of Essendon in 2000 is not out of the question.
Carlton
It has been a season of upheaval at Princes Park for a club that desperately needed a shake-up after two disappointing seasons. The decision to move on Charlie Curnow for a suite of first rounders will hurt in the short term, but there’s a bit to like about the Blues.
Ollie Florent and Ben Ainsworth add useful depth, Sam Walsh and Nic Newman are fit and Jagga Smith already looks a bona fide star. Carlton showed a more daring edge in preseason and, if they can stay healthy, they could be a wildcard threat.
Collingwood
The cliff feels close for Collingwood. Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe have had interrupted preseasons, Bobby Hill looks unlikely to return, Brody Mihocek has departed and Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Jordan De Goey are deep into the back nine of their careers.
The Pies have been all in on chasing flags, sacrificing early draft picks and the gradual blooding of youth. If injuries hit, the lack of depth could be exposed quickly. Things could get very ugly for Craig McRae’s team.
Essendon
Essendon are one of the tougher teams to assess because so much hinges on injury. If they get anything close to a normal run after last year’s disaster, this number is within reach.
The Bombers were 10th after round 14 last season and sat top four after round 18 in 2024, so the team is capable when they have a full squad available. They lack star power, but when fit they are organised and competitive with most. Not a play for the faint of heart, but over 7.5 is the lean.
Fremantle
No excuses for Fremantle. This is a list that wants for nothing. The midfield is stacked, there is genuine x factor in Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton and Murphy Reid and the defence has long been a strength.
The additions of Judd McVee and Mason Cox add depth and flexibility, leaving Justin Longmuir with every tool required to contend. If they can find greater attacking prowess, top four is within reach and 15 wins should be cleared.
Geelong
It is never comfortable betting against the most consistent home and away side of the modern era, but history is unkind to teams that get belted in Grand Finals. None of the last six sides to lose by 40 or more have finished fifth or higher the following season.
Jeremy Cameron carried a heavy load last year and has had an interrupted offseason, Patrick Dangerfield’s influence is waning and Bailey Smith is already managing soft tissue concerns. His absence could expose a midfield that lacks depth. Under, just.
Gold Coast
Gold Coast are the hype team of the preseason and on pure talent they should be capable of edging past last year’s 15 wins. Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan headline the additions and lift the ceiling considerably, but the departure of some experience and depth has been understated.
From the side that played in the semi final, Ben Ainsworth, David Swallow, Braydon Fiorini and Connor Budarick have departed, along with Sam Flanders, Malcolm Rosas Jr and Alex Sexton. The top end talent is elite and good enough to clear 15.5, but any injuries could test their depth quickly. The Suns are coming, but it may not be in 2026.
GWS Giants
Injuries threaten to derail the Giants before the season has begun. Tom Green and Josh Kelly are gone for the year, while Sam Taylor, Finn Callaghan, Toby Bedford, Leek Aleer, Darcy Jones and Brent Daniels are all facing delayed starts.
The opening six rounds offer an immediate litmus test, with the Hawks, Pies, Dogs, Swans and Saints on the schedule, the exact tier of opponents the Giants must beat if they are to be a genuine finals chance in 2026. Falling behind early could make it difficult to rebuild momentum and a down year for the orange team looks likely.
Hawthorn
Hawthorn have built a competitive, disciplined side, but there is a ceiling on what they can achieve with this sub-par midfield. The failed pursuit of Zach Merrett, the departure of James Worpel and the injury to Will Day leave Jai Newcombe exposed as the only above average midfielder in this team.
Structure and a good back six will keep them in games, but against top opposition the gap in class through the middle is likely to be decisive. Without some players taking significant strides forward, 15 wins feels ambitious.
Melbourne
Melbourne are one of the genuine mysteries of 2026. Steven King has quickly implemented a game style that better suits the modern game and could result in sharp improvement, but the departures of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver, along with Jack Viney’s injury, undoubtedly leave a significant hole.
The Demons have drafted well for years and Caleb Windsor, Harvey Langford, Trent Rivers and Jacob van Rooyen look ready for greater responsibility. This is an absolute toss-up, but over is the lean.
North Melbourne
It is hard to see a meaningful spike for North Melbourne while their defence remains a liability. The midfield and forward line are stacked with emerging talent, but the team defence and back six are still well below the standard required to consistently win games.
The Kangaroos have been handed a very favourable opening six rounds, which shapes as their best chance to build early momentum. If the defensive structure does not click quickly, they could miss their window. The number looks close to right, but under 7.5 is the lean.
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide landed on exactly nine wins last season and it is difficult to make a strong case for improvement. Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Mitch Georgiades are genuine quality, but beyond that core the list looks middling at best.
Josh Carr now takes full control, though he was heavily involved last year when results were underwhelming. With limited upside and depth concerns across the park, the bottom four could be calling for the Power.
Richmond
Some have speculated that Richmond’s aggressive list management could spark a quick rise up the ladder, but this remains a list deep in a rebuild.
The Tigers remain reliant on known commodities in Nankervis, Vlaustin, Taranto, Hopper, Prestia and Broad, while their recent top picks are still years away from proving they can take the reins. With few clear cellar dwellers outside West Coast, finding five wins may be a stretch.
St Kilda
St Kilda are the most intriguing side in the competition after an unprecedented offseason shopping spree that delivered Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders and Liam Ryan. Anything fewer than 13 wins would feel like a major letdown given the level of investment.
With a genuine superstar in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera driving the midfield and clear upside in Mitch Owen, Mattaes Phillipou, Darcy Wilson, Alex Tauru, Marcus Windhager and Max Hall, a top ten finish should be the expectation.
Sydney
Sydney shape as the obvious bolter in 2026. They were the dominant home and away side in 2024 before a dip last season, but the back half of the year was strong once Errol Gulden returned to full fitness.
The arrival of Charlie Curnow is enormous for a side that lacked a genuine spearhead and a top four finish should be the goal for this side.
West Coast
Any optimism around a West Coast rebound has been dampened by two pitiful preseason performances. After a one-win campaign, asking this group to find four victories feels unlikely.
On the positive end, Elliott Yeo is back to full fitness and Harley Reid has reportedly taken another step with his conditioning, with some talented draftees arriving as well. Even so, the gap to the rest of the competition remains enormous. The under is a lock.
Western Bulldogs
If Luke Beveridge cannot lift this defence to finals standard then he should hand in his resignation at season’s end. The midfield and forward line are absolutely stacked and they will again bully the weaker sides.
Conor Budarick is an underrated addition in defence and Rory Lobb and James O’Donnell looked solid as the key posts during preseason. With even a moderate improvement in defence, this team should be in premiership contention.
Predicted Ladder
- Brisbane Lions
- Sydney
- Western Bulldogs
- Gold Coast
- Fremantle
- Geelong
- Adelaide
- St Kilda
- Hawthorn
- Collingwood
- Carlton
- GWS Giants
- Melbourne
- Essendon
- North Melbourne
- Port Adelaide
- Richmond
- West Coast
